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Monday, March 18, 2013

Tournament Regional breakdown

Okay its officially time to get the brackets out! Lets breakdown the 4 regions and take a closer look at what to look for and who to watch coming the next few days!

Midwest Region-

Louisville playing at Rupp Arena is such an advantage for the Cardinals, basically will be a home game for them. Even funnier that they will be playing on arch rival Kentucky's home floor, an extra kick in the shin for the Wildcats who missed the dance.

Colorado St and Missouri will be an interesting match up. Two of the better rebounding teams in the country.  This will be a track meet as both teams are also top 50 in the country in scoring

Oklahoma St and Oregon is an intriguing game. Oklahoma St was a team I really liked coming in but they got a raw deal having to play a severely underseeded Oregon team who won the Pac 10 tournament and deserved a 8-10 seed, not a 12.

St Louis is one of my favorite teams in the whole tournament. I was upset seeing that Oklahoma St and St Louis would be paired in the second round as these teams were both a few of my personal favorites.

Memphis is such an enigma. They always have NBA talent and always seem to underachieve. They will get the winner of Middle Tenn St and St marys and I think the Tigers should be able to move past the first round this year.

Michigan St gets Horizon champ Valpo who has got some shooters but Izzo's squad is battle tested and should be too tough for Valpo.

Creighton and Cincinnati should be a very interesting matchup. The high flying Blue Jays matching up with Cronin's tough nosed Bearcats defense. Which style will play out here?

The Blue Devils were shocked by 15 seed Lehigh last year but dont count on that happening again.

My prediction here is that Lousville and Duke will meet in the regional final with the Blue Devils coming out on top. I badly wanted to take the Billikens over the Cardinals but I couldnt do it due to Louisville's depth and Michigan St could offer up a tough match up for Duke but I think that guard play will come into play here where I think Duke has the advantage.

West Region-

Gonzaga grabbed their first ever 1 seed and looks to be a serious force out West in Salt Lake. They have all the elements of a championship team led by the most efficient player in the country Kelly Olynyk.

The 8-9 match up here will be one of the best games in the first round with two tough defensive teams in Pitt and Wichita St. This game is truly a toss up for me.

The 5th seeded Badgers of Wisconsin got a pretty tough draw with the 12 seed SEC tourney champ Ole Miss Rebels. Contrast of styles here with the deliberate defensive Badgers and the run and gun Rebels led by Marshall Henderson.

Kansas St is a team that I believe has really over achieved this year. I keep waiting for them to come back to earth but they have kept it up all year. A job well done by Bruce Weber. LaSalle Explorers could cause an intriguing match up as they have excellent guard play and can really score the ball.

The Pac 12 as a whole was hammered by the committee. This is an Arizona team that was at one point in the season fighting for a 1 seed. This team has a boat load of talent and can play with anyone. Belmont has been a great mid major tournament team over the years but do they have the talent to play with the Wildcats?

Steve Alford's New Mexico Lobos are clearly one of the top teams in the country. Kendall Williams can fill it up in a hurry and this is a team that could certainy score enough to beat anybody including the Buckeyes.

Notre Dame and Iowa St is another one of those contrast in style games. Iowa St is one of the top 10 scoring teams in the country and Notre Dame has their trademark Burn offense which eats clock. This could be an awesome game in Dayton.

Ohio St drew a very tough match up with 15 seeded Iona. The Gaels are one of the top scoring teams in the country and Momo Jones is an Arizona transfer who is one the top scorers in the country. If Deshaun Thomas is cold than look out!

For this region I am going to take the Gonzaga Bulldogs over New Mexico. I just think they are such a complete team. Wisconsin could cause them problems for them in the sweet 16 but I just dont think the badgers can score with them. Another team to keep an eye on is Arizona. They are loaded with talent and I wouldnt be surprised one bit to see them in the Elite 8.

South Region-

Kansas landed a number one seed much to the chagrin of the Miami Hurricanes. Look for a round 2 match up wirh former Jayhawk coach Roy Williams Tar Heel squad.

A lot of people are talking about the UNC-Nova game being a close one to keep an eye on but the emergence of PJ Hairston to take the load off of McAdoo I dont think the Wildcats can score with the Tar Heels.

5 seed VCU is not sneaking up on anyone anymore. Shaka Smart's havoc defense will match up with the Akron Zips who won 20 games in a row at one point this year. Zeke Marshall is one of the better players no one has heard of but I think the Rams will wear Akron down in this one.

Michigan who at one point looked like one of the best teams in the country has been on a slide of late and have a dangerous first round matchup with Nate Wolters and the Jackrabbits of South Dakota St. I still think the Wolverines and Trey Burke have too much firepower.

11 seed Minnesota is a popular upset pick right now over 6 seed UCLA who just lost 2nd leading scorer Jordan Adams to a broken foot but I just dont see it happening. Minnesota has struggled the second half of the year and UCLA has a lot of top notch talent including future top 5 pick Shabazz Muhammad who seems to have found his groove.

Florida and Northwestern St should be a truly fun game to watch. I love this Gators squad. They can score with the best of them and can really defend too. Northwestern St is the nations highest scoring team so this game could easily manufacture the most points of any first round games!

The 7-10 match up of San Diego St and Oklahoma should be a nice contest. Jamaal Franklin will lead the Aztecs against Romero Osby and the Sooners. Oklahoma has proven they can beat good teams this year and for that reason I am taking Oklahoma.

Georgetown led by Otto Porter who is hands down one of the top 3 players in the country will be a tough out for any team. The Princeton offense is a thing of beauty when executed and this Hoya teams has really gelled.

This region has some very nice squads with Kansas, Georgetown, Florida, Michigan and VCU. I wouldnt be surprised to see any of these teams in the final four but I am going to take Florida over Michigan due to once again tough experienced guard play.

East Region-

Is there a more complete team in the country than the Hoosiers? Oladipo and Zeller lead a high octane offense that can score in bunches.

NC St and Temple will be a nice game in round 1. NC St has nice talent with Lorenzo Brown and CJ Leslie. I think they will prevail if they can keep Khalif Wyatt in check and could pose an interesting challenge for Indiana in round 2.

UNLV led by lottery pick Anthony Bennett has been an under the radar team all year long but does have a first round match up with the Cal Bears led by Allen Crabbe. Good be closer than people think.

Syracuse has burnt me in the past as every year I seem to take the Orange to make a run. They may be the most bipolar team in the country. Some games they look unbeatable and other they look disinterested. I think they advance here and face the Hoosiers in an intriguing sweet 16 match up.

The bottom portion of this East bracket is weak in my opinion. Butler has been in a funk and cant win if Rotnei Clarke doesnt score 20. They drew a Bucknell Bison squad led by Patriot league POY Mike Muscala. This game could a good one.

Marquette to me was seeded much to high. This team is solid but I think they would be better suited for a 5 seed. Buzz Williams has gotten a lot out of this team this year but Im looking for Bob McKillop's Davidson squad to pull the upset and ultimately advance to the sweet 16 over Butler.

Illinios and Colorado in the 7-10 game could go either way. Colorado led by rebound machine Andre Roberson will look to lockdown Brandon Paul and the Illini. Im taking the Buffs.

The Hurricanes of Miami got a bad deal becoming the first ACC team ever to win both the regular season and conference tourney title and not get a number one seed. But they were rewarded with a soft lower half of this region. Im taking the Canes into the Elite 8.

I hate going chalk with 1 and 2 seeds but I think this region is by far the softest and looks like a cake walk for the top seeds to advance. Bet Im wrong though!

Final Four-

In my final four I have Duke vs Gonzaga and Florida vs Indiana. Im going to take the Zags over the Blue Devils. I just love the talent of Mark Few's ballclub this year. I believe Kelly Olynyk is the best player in the country. Yes I said the BEST player in the country and he will show it on the big stage!

Florida and Indiana could be an incredible match up with two high flying teams. Scotty Wilbekin and Kenny Boynton would have to be hot to outlast the Hoosiers but Patrik Young can match up with Cody Zeller and Casey Prather can match the athleticism of Victor Oladipo. Im taking the Gators in a barn burner.

My championship game pits the Gonzaga Bulldogs vs the Florida Gators. I think this is Gonzagas years. I have seem them play several times and I come out impressed everytime I see them. Florida has lost a little mojo late in the season but I think they can regain it and have the talent to make a run. This could be a great championship game but I look for the Dawgs to take home the title with Kelly Olynyk, Kevin Pangos and Elias Harris leading the way!

Lets hear your comments!!





3 comments:

  1. Before I make any comment on your analysis I have to say that I love the fact that Kentucky has to go TO Robert Morris for the first round of the NIT because Rick Pitino's Louisville Cardinals will be occupying Rupp Arena the same day.

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  2. Midwest: I agree with everything here..I too had to change my pick of having St Louis in the Regional Final to Louisville. I also have Duke emerging from the Midwest. The two best first round match-ups are in this region in my opinion with Colorado State taking on Missouri and Creighton taking on Cincinnati. In close games I like to look at which team will get more possessions whether that's from rebounding (offensive as well as limiting the opponent with defensive) or through forcing turnovers AND taking care of the ball. That said I have to take Colorado State over Missouri because they will have an edge on the glass. Missouri doesn't shoot well enough from the outside to win this game. In the Creighton-Cincinnati matchup I want to take the Bearcats because they will limit the Blue Jays possessions, but Creighton may be the one exception to this because their offensive efficiency should offset the limited possessions. I just don't trust a team like Cincinnati that shoots so poorly from all over the floor to win in March.
    Cinderella pick: Oregon to the sweet 16 (even though they shouldn't be considered a Cinderella because they are under-seeded by AT LEAST 3-4 seeds and they just won a power conference tournament championship.)

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  3. West: this is a very underrated region in my eyes...the experts are all saying this is a soft region but Gonzaga has arguably the best trio in college hoops with Olynyk, Pangos, and Harris plus the AP #1 team in the nation. Add in the BIG10 Tournament Champion Buckeyes, a New Mexico squad that should've been a #2 seed, a Wisconsin team playing as well as anyone in the country, and an Arizona team that was ranked in the top 10 in the country for 13 straight weeks who's tournament seed fell victim to the committee's "what have you done for me lately?" law. Add in KState, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Iowa State and you have 10 teams capable of representing the region. I struggled with this region but I like Gonzaga over Ohio State to make the final four and Wisconsin and Arizona grabbing sweet 16 births.
    Upset for the region: Play-in winner (Boise State or LaSalle) over Kansas State (the one team I feel is over-seeded in this region)

    So far we agree with Duke and Gonzaga in the final four

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